Currently, adult-use cannabis is legal in 19 states, two territories and Washington, D.C., with medical cannabis legal in 37 states, three territories and D.C. If all five states approved adult-use cannabis, nearly half the U.S. population would reside in a jurisdiction where the possession and use of cannabis is legal for adults.
And, while many of these states have a reputation for leaning more conservative, this year also shows the progress behind cannabis reform, with political parties slowly becoming less and less relevant.
As Americans collectively look ahead to midterms, let’s take a closer look at the cannabis policy these states will consider this year:
Arkansas – Issue 4
Back in 2016, Arkansas voters legalized medical cannabis, by a vote of 53.11% to 46.89%, winning in 38 of the state’s 75 counties. This November, Arkansans will vote on Arkansas Issue 4, or the Arkansas Adult Use Cannabis Amendment.
What it does: The amendment would authorize the possession, personal use and consumption of cannabis by adults who are at least 21 years of age. Residents would be allowed possession and use of up to one ounce of cannabis. The amendment would also come with a 10% tax on cannabis states, requiring the state’s Alcoholic Beverage Control Division to develop rules to regulate cannabis businesses.
The amendment that legalized medical cannabis in the state allowed for a maximum of 40 dispensaries and eight cultivators; this year’s recreational amendment would increase the maximum number of cultivation facilities to 20 and the maximum number of dispensaries to 120.
What the polls say: The last poll of Arkansas voters on this initiative was back in September, finding that voters backed the initiative by a 2-to-1 margin. The Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College survey of 835 likely Arkansas voters was conducted September 12 and found that 58.5% were for the initiative, 29% were against it and 12.5% were unsure.
The same organization ran a similar poll back in February, surveying 961 likely Arkansas voters, and still found that a majority of voters supported adult-use cannabis: 53.5% said they supported adult-use cannabis, 32% said they supported medical cannabis only, 10.5% said cannabis should be illegal and 4% said they were unsure.
Maryland – Question 4
Maryland legalized medical cannabis in 2014, facilitating sales since 2017, and the momentum for reform has grown in the state since. Medical usage is booming: As of November 2021, the Maryland Medical Cannabis Commission reported nearly 150,000 state-registered patients and about $600 million in sales, according to state regulators—a huge leap from 2020’s $423 million and 2019’s $255 million in revenue.
Now, voters decide whether or not to keep the cannabis train moving, with Maryland Question 4, or the Marijuana Legalization Amendment.
What it does: The amendment legalizes cannabis for adults 21 and older beginning July 2023, directing the Maryland State Legislature to pass laws for the use, distribution and taxation of cannabis.
The General Assembly also passed companion legislation that would become effective upon 4’s passing and provide additional clarity around the implementation of the amendment. House Bill 837 clarifies that, should Question 4 pass, the possession of up to 1.5 ounces of cannabis or 10 grams of cannabis concentrate would immediately be decriminalized, only subject to small administrative fines. After June 30, 2021, possessing these amounts of cannabis would be completely legal.
HB 837 also notes that residents would be allowed to cultivate up to two cannabis plants per household. All prior cannabis possession convictions that would be legal under the new provisions will also automatically be expunged, with those currently serving time allowed to apply for resentencing of possession convictions.
What the polls say: Polling has shown consistent support for cannabis over the years among Maryland residents. The two most recent polls from Goucher College and Washington Post/The University of Maryland both took place in September.
The Goucher poll ultimately found that 59% indicated they would vote to approve the question, with 34% against and 7% undecided. The Post poll shows even more support, with 73% in favor of legalizing adult-use cannabis, with 23% against and 4% stating “no opinion.”
Support has been consistent, with a 2019 Post-UMD poll finding that 66% of Maryland residents supported legalizing cannabis and using its tax revenue for educational programming and another Goucher poll from March 2022 finding 62% of Maryland residents supported legalizing recreational cannabis. Ultimately, many experts expect voters will likely pass the bill.
Missouri – Amendment 3
Four years following a successful public initiative to legalize medical cannabis in Missouri, and just two years after sales officially launched across the state, Missouri voters are revisiting cannabis at the ballot box with Missouri Amendment 3.
What it does: A yes vote for Amendment 3 amends the Missouri Constitution to legalize the purchase, possession, consumption, use, delivery, manufacture and sale of cannabis for personal use for adults over 21 years of age. The amendment would also allow people with certain cannabis-related offenses to petition for release from prison, or parole and probation, and have their records expunged. Additionally, it would enact a 6% tax on the retail price of recreational cannabis.
The petition also outlines a system that would grant 144 additional licenses for “microbusiness facilities,” comprised of six dispensaries and 12 wholesale facilities in each of Missouri’s congressional districts. The licenses will be selected through a lottery process, and licensees would be allowed to manufacture and cultivate cannabis products.
What the polls say: A number of new polls shed light on the potential outcome of the vote, though they might leave folks with more questions than definitive answers.
One mid-September poll by Remington Research Group, commissioned by Missouri Scout, found that just 43% of respondents supported Amendment 3, with 47% against and 10% unsure. Results from another poll, from Emerson College Polling and The Hill, were shared at the end of September, finding that 48% of respondents back the legalization proposal, while 35% were opposed and 17% were unsure.
Another poll, conducted in mid-September by SurveyUSA, complicates things further: It found that 62% of voters are “certain to vote yes” on Amendment 3, with 22% opposed and 16% unsure. With the available data and time ticking away until Voting Day, many have indicated that this specific vote is a toss-up.
North Dakota – Statutory Measure 2
North Dakota voters passed Measure 5, the North Dakota Compassionate Care Act, back in 2016, authorizing the sale of medical cannabis. It took two years for the North Dakota Legislative Assembly to create regulations, and in 2019, Governor Doug Burgum reduced cannabis possession penalties and expanded the list of qualifying conditions for medical cannabis patients.
This year, voters will decide whether or not the state will go a step further, with Statutory Measure 2.
What it does: The measure would create a new chapter of the North Dakota Century Code, legalizing the production, processing and sale of cannabis and the use of “various forms of cannabis” for adults 21 years old and up. Specifically, it would legalize possession of up to one ounce of cannabis, four grams of concentrate and 500mg of THC in an infused product. Adults in the state who are of age would also be allowed to grow up to three cannabis plants, and the measure requires the Department of Health and Human Services to establish rules regulating the market by October 1, 2023.
Under the measure, the department could also license seven cultivation facilities and 18 cannabis retailers.
What the polls say: North Dakota is a fairly conservative state, where voters rejected a similar ballot measure in 2018 to legalize cannabis 59.45% to 40.55%.
One July poll from The Dickinson Press looked specifically at southwest North Dakota readers, finding that 39% supported the measure, 43% were opposed and 18% didn’t have a preference. The paper also suggested that opinions may have shifted in the area over time, as a similar 2018 poll found southwestern North Dakotans supported that year’s legislation 60% to 40%, despite the outcome.
Unfortunately, there aren’t any other publicized and recent polls on the issue. However, one key difference this year, versus 2018’s effort, that could push the conversation in another direction is money, U.S. News and Associated Press reports. Four years ago, cannabis advocates had little money for their efforts, but this year, the North Dakota legalization group has received more than $520,000.
Additionally, the North Dakota Petroleum Council, which helped fund opposition to the measure in 2018, will not contribute to the fight against cannabis legalization this time around, according to the group’s president Ron Ness.
There are several factors that could spell success for the effort, but unfortunately without more concrete polling data, it’s tough to anticipate where the vote could go.
South Dakota – Initiative Measure 27
After passing the state’s medical cannabis legalization initiative in 2020, with the state’s first licensed dispensary opening its doors July 2022, South Dakota voters will once again vote on cannabis with Initiative Measure 27. The state has a storied history with cannabis, leaving the vote this year a bit different than some of the other states posing similar questions.
What it does: A yes vote for Initiative Measure 27 supports the legalization of possession, distribution and use of cannabis for people 21 years old or older. The measure does not address licensing, taxation, local government regulations of cannabis or hemp regulations.
In 2020, along with medical cannabis, voters approved Amendment A. The amendment would have legalized recreational cannabis; authorized the State Department of Revenue to issue cannabis-related licenses for cultivation, testing, manufacturing, wholesale and retail; imposed a 15% tax on cannabis sales; authorized local governments to enact regulations for licensees in their jurisdictions; and required the state legislature to pass laws providing a program for medical cannabis and hemp.
Voters approved the measure 54% to 46% in the November 3, 2020 general election, but the Supreme Court overturned the measure February 8, 2022, with Judge Christina Klinger ruling it was unconstitutional for violating South Dakota’s single-subject rule (state law says constitutional amendments can only cover a single issue) and because it was a revision of the constitution rather than an amendment.
This time around, advocates aren’t risking invalidation, instead moving forward to strictly enforce legalization. Cannabis sales could come at a future date, if separate laws are passed by lawmakers or voters.
What the polls say: While voters just approved a similar initiative two years ago, with even more directly attached to it, recent polls show that South Dakotans are split on the issue.
South Dakota State University released results of their survey of South Dakota voters earlier this month, finding that 45% supported the measure, 47% were against and 8% were not sure. Another poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Florida, conducted in July, found that 43.8% of respondents supporting legalization of recreational cannabis, while 54.4% opposed it.
We can theorize all we want, but of course we’ll have to collectively hang tight to witness the final outcomes in these states. While we might not see all five states enacting cannabis reform this year, we’re likely to escape election season with a little more state support for recreational cannabis.