Four years after the Taliban banned opium cultivation, Afghanistan’s poppy-growing area has increased 330% in a single year, while estimated opium production has risen 400%. With stockpiles potentially running low and farmers lacking viable alternatives, the resurgence raises questions about whether the increase is temporary or signals a broader return of Afghanistan’s opium and heroin production.
Opium poppy cultivation has historically been one of the pillars of Afghanistan’s agricultural economy. But when the then-new Taliban regime decided to ban the activity in 2022, the future of this extensive sector became uncertain, raising a host of questions. What would happen to the thousands of poppy farmers? Could they turn to growing hemp as an alternative? Who would replace the world’s largest opium producer, responsible for 80% of the global supply? And with heroin in short supply, could fentanyl fill the gap in the illicit market?
Today, a new report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) shows how the situation has evolved four years later. The ban has not eliminated poppy cultivation or opium production, with the latter increasing sharply compared to 2025.
Although cultivation has not returned to the same levels seen before the ban, the numbers are certainly worth talking about. In the past year alone, the area devoted to poppy cultivation grew by 330%, from 10,000 hectares in 2025 to more than 43,000. Of the country’s 34 provinces, 16 saw poppy cultivation, five more than the previous year. Meanwhile, estimated opium production increased by 400%, from around 300 metric tons to nearly 1,500.
Despite the efforts of the de facto government, which claims to have eradicated 22,000 hectares of poppy fields this year—a figure UNODC could not independently verify—the illicit opium trade generated an estimated USD 525 million for traders in 2026. Farmers have found ways to evade authorities by concealing small poppy plots within cereal fields or walled compounds, or by staggering planting and harvesting times.
Now, while these numbers may seem dramatic, they don’t even come close to the levels seen before Afghanistan’s opium ban. To put things into perspective, consider that in 2022, before the ban affected harvests, the area of the country devoted to this crop reached around 232,000 hectares. At that time, the price of dry opium was below USD 100 per kilogram; today, we are talking about USD 500 per kilogram (a slight decrease from last year, when it stood at USD 570 per kilogram). Just one year after the ban, Afghanistan’s opium production had fallen by 95%.
According to the UN statement, existing opium stockpiles appear to have sustained supply in recent years. But recent seizure data and early signs of declining heroin availability in Europe, noted in the UN World Drug Report 2026, suggest those reserves may be running low, potentially contributing to the renewed increase in illicit poppy cultivation.
Now, this resurgence is not particularly surprising, given that thousands of growers still lack viable ways to earn a living. In this regard, UNODC Executive Director Monica Juma said: “The fourfold increase in opium poppy cultivation shows the difficulty in sustaining decreases in illicit opium cultivation when poor farmers have no alternatives to feed their families… The DFA and the international community need to work together to support farming communities by investing in livelihoods, farming infrastructure and access to markets.”
But according to AP News, Taliban authorities rejected UNODC’s estimates, arguing that the figures did not accurately reflect the situation and that the agency had relied on “satellite images, estimates and incorrect information from biased groups.” They also said that any assessment that fails to account for the government’s eradication efforts is “incomplete and unfair.”
Afghanistan also faces significant public health challenges related to substance use. Economic hardship, unemployment and limited access to healthcare are closely linked to these problems. Despite the ban, problematic opium use continues to affect people across the country.
So, are we looking at a temporary phenomenon, or a resurgence of opium and heroin production? The UN recommends continuing to monitor illicit activity in the country before drawing any conclusions.
Cover photo: Jesse Loring,CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons // U.S. Department of Defense Current Photos, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons // Zanahary,CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons // VOA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons // Edited with AI
